How the CPC could win the election, and what it would really mean ...

As we head into the last two weeks, or so, of the Dominion Election, it appears that the CPC is now in the lead - according to some new opinion polls.

I would remind everyone that these polls have to be taken with the proverbial "grain of salt," as this Nations' politics are now highly regionalised. If the Conservatives have 36% support, then how much of that is massed in Alberta? If the CPC gets 60% of the total Alberta vote, that skews the national ordering of support, etc & etc .... We should be careful about reading a lot into them.

Regional polls are a better way of hacking into the current trends. Leger Marketing usually does a good job of this. They have released their polling data today, and show the CPC at 34% and the Liberals at 32% - a statistical dead heat.

http://www.legermarketing.com/eng/

Leger Marketing also notes that:

"Nearly one-third of those surveyed said they might still change their minds before Jan. 23, with the Prairies, Atlantic Canada and B.C. registering the most volatility."

The survey reveals CPC strength in MB, SK & AB.

It reveals tights races in ONT, BC & Atlantic Canada.

It reveals BQ dominance in QC.

What this is really showing us is that nothing has changed from the last election, save for the fact that the CPC is now being considered more favourably in Ontario and Atlantic Canada than it was last time around.

The end-result appears to be either a Liberal or CPC Minority Government - unless some new scandal or innovative policy serves to cause an uproar in Ontario, BC, or the Atlantic region.

What does this mean for Canada ?

What this means for the nation, is that some large voting blocs appear to identify more with the region they live in, than with the Federation as a whole. While this is not a new revelation, it appears to be more entrenched now than in the early 1990's.

The lines of demarcation are in Quebec and Alberta.

Quebec seems to believe that the best way to represent the community is via a nationalist party. Alberta seems to believe that the best way to represent the community is via a radical "provincial-rights" party. The rest of Canada - including the large bloc of voters in Ontario and BC are confused: Should they support a "Federalist party" or a "Provincial-rights party" ?

Over 100 years ago the party positions were reversed; Macdonald and the conservatives were propounding and defending a centralised Federation, and the liberal forces (such as Joseph Howe & Oliver Mowat) were advocating greater provincial autonomy. Such forces were in tension then - and it appears - they are in tension now.

This is the central fact & quandary in Canadian political culture. Are we Federalists who believe in a strong Nation and National Government, or are we provincialists, who seek only enough central authority to ensure domestic security? Or are we both?

I - for one - am a Sir John A. Macdonald Tory. This is why I cannot vote for the CPC. Their policies and inclinations are not sufficiently federalist enough for me. However, the Liberal party is the destroyer of Canadian nationalism - even though they have stronger Federalist credentials over the last 25 years. I cannot support them. The NDP are opposed to the traditions and institutions that have made Canada great. So much for them. The Greens appear too equalitarian for me. Good-bye to all that ...

The central conclusions are thus:

* Paul Martin is a poor leader for a Federal party. While some give him kudos for his work as MoF in the 1990's, the reality is that he is non-charismatic, a poor extemporaneous (or otherwise ...) speaker, and a bit of a political "stumblebum." As the Liberals did in 1957, he is carrying the baggage of corruption behind him as well;

* There is no longer a Federal Political party that can be considered a truly "National party;"

* The Liberals are about to learn that they did not win all those elections since 1993, but that they benefited from the regionalism of Canada in general, and the regionalism of Conservative values in particular;

* Alberta (and the Prairies south & west of Winnipeg ...) conservatism is classical liberalism of the American variety, supported by single-issue pressure groups, such as Western separatists, the gun lobby, anti-Wheat Board radicals, republicans, and US-style evangelical Christians;

* BC conservatism (such as it is ...) is badly split between American-style republicanism and Canadian loyalism (E. Davie Fulton must be turning over in his grave ...) ;

* Ontario conservatives are generally Red Tories being turned-off by both parties, holding their noses, and voting for the local candidate;

* Atlantic conservatives are voting for the local candidate - almost exclusively.

The next parliament is going to be a mess.